Dear Prime Minister, congratulations! But you have only won half the battle: in these terribly polarising times, winning the prime-ministership is akin to drinking a poisoned chalice!
The remaining half of the battle can be won if you view your high office as a means to a very important goal, i.e. cooling the combustible political temperature, reducing society’s bitter divisions, focusing on issues rather than on polemics and demagoguery and, above all, giving hope of a better tomorrow.
In other words, Prime Minister, you and your rainbow coalition need to politically defeat the destructive rank populism of Imran Khan which has rent asunder state and society.
I know you are one of Pakistan’s most experienced politicians – active in parliamentary politics since 1988 – and widely considered the country’s most effective administrator after the Nawab of Kalabagh, who firmly governed the then West Pakistan in the 1960s.
Still, I am going to be presumptuous and to give you my two cents worth of political advice. So here goes:
Deal effectively and swiftly with “Lettergate”
In your debut address, you boldly staked your reputation on the hollowness of the claim that the USA sought regime change in Pakistan by conspiring with the opposition parties. Your stand has been critically endorsed by the DG ISPR’s crystal clear clarification that the word “conspiracy” never figured in the minutes of the National Security Council’s meeting on Lettergate.
You need to comprehensively bury this myth by holding a high-level enquiry, headed by an uncontroversial and apolitical retired Supreme Court judge, with well-respected retired officers of the police, the foreign service and the armed forces as its members. Set a two-month period for the completion of the enquiry and issuance of its report, since time is of the essence.
Please remember the Tashkent Declaration of 1966 and the grave charge levelled by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto that Ayub Khan had agreed to a secret provision in this pact with India. Bhutto never revealed that hidden provision - many believe it did not even exist - but the damaging allegation proved a festering sore which further weakened Ayub’s declining credibility.
Therefore, lance the Lettergate boil before it becomes any bigger!
Do not indulge in name-calling, abuse and rabble-rousing
Imran Khan has stooped low to make you the butt of crude jokes, to distort your name and to indulge in your character assassination.
Deal with this unbecoming conduct by ignoring it altogether. Let Imran Khan appear as the sole leader indulging in such meaningless verbal abuse. Show yourself to be above it all. If you do so, you will appear statesmanlike and your opponent will appear a rabble-rouser.
Debate Imran Khan on performance; avoid polemics
You should surgically focus on a critique of Imran’s time in office, with well-documented facts and figures to puncture his lofty claims of having run a successful government. Concrete achievements of the PTI government were few and far between, and this is the Achilles' heel on which your government should hammer home the attack against the PTI.
Do not waste time in controversial debates and disputes. Imran revels in playing on this turf, since it allows him to sidestep his weak wicket of policy and performance. You cannot match Imran on this front, because he is a past master at this art. Therefore, simply do not go down this ruinous path.
Construct a broad-based electoral constituency
Prime Minister, the core of the PTI’s support base is the urban middle class, the youth, women and serving and retired civil/military officials and their families. Do not write them off as a lost cause; rather, try to address the issues and challenges they face in their daily lives. This does not mean that they will en masse desert the PTI’s ranks, but at least you would have begun the difficult but necessary process of chipping away at the party’s core constituency.
In addition, you need to expand your own vote-bank, which currently comprises traders, small businesses, the rural middle class and conservative elements. Focus on a mass group, such as farmers, and use a combination of targeted benefits to create a favourable electoral constituency among this segment of society. Farmers may not be as vocal and savvy as the urban middle class, but they are the salt of the earth and, as Narendra Modi learnt to his extreme discomfort when he unsuccessfully took on the Indian farmers over his controversial farm laws, they are a force to be reckoned with!
Harness a broad electoral vote-bank as a force for positive change.
Create positivity
The nation is yearning for some substantial news of good cheer, which can lift its morale and hold forth the promise of a better tomorrow.
In my view, the carving out of two new provinces from the Punjab - South Punjab and Bahawalpur - is one such momentous initiative to be considered. It will bring manifold benefits: a much-needed devolution of power; the distant “Takht-e-Lahore” will no longer call the shots for these areas; no negative precedent will be created on linguistic grounds, since the two provinces will be created on an administrative basis; and, last but not least, the decision will give your government goodwill and additional electoral support.
A fly in the ointment exists: in the absence of 120 plus PTI MNAs, it may not be possible to amend the constitution to create new provinces, since two-thirds of the total membership of the Senate and the National Assembly is required for this purpose. However, if bye-elections are held, the government should seize the initiative by making the creation of the two provinces a major election issue in Punjab. This will not only blunt the PTI’s likely focus on Lettergate, but it will also allow you to craft your election strategy around an issue of great pith and importance.
Last but not least, hold your ground!
The PTI chairman is marching up and down the length and breadth of Pakistan, demanding early elections and exacerbating divisions in society. Impressive crowds are attending his rallies.
Let him sweat it out! As the torrid summer approaches, the rising mercury will most likely cool the ardour of his followers.
It is critically important that you hold your rainbow coalition in place. The parties in your unity government represent the votes of nearly 70% of Pakistanis; the PTI represents the remaining 30% of the country. Do not lose sight of this hard fact.
So far the crowds at the PTI rallies are primarily drawn from the party’s existing voter base. The “dharna” could not bring down the Nawaz Sharif government in 2014; it will be a tall order for these rallies to pressurize a broad-based opposition unity government into calling early elections. At least not as long as the powers-that-be remain neutral, steadfast and committed to support your lawfully constituted government.
Therefore, keep your nerves steady!
Prime Minister, Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020 proves that populism is not invincible. It can be vanquished if a strong counter narrative is built against its divisive appeal. The PTI’s brand of populism can also be defeated, but for this you need to step up and fight the good fight.
Do not get distracted from focusing on this vital task. Let the provincial governments deal with operational matters, such as metro bus functioning, construction of motorways and building of schools, hospitals and clean water schemes, etc. Not just in letter but in spirit also you must now graduate from being the Khadim-e-Aala of Punjab to becoming the Khadim-e-Azam of Pakistan.
If you succeed, the odds will favour Pakistan remaining a liberal and constitutional democracy; but if you fail and we see the return of the populist, the odds will shorten on Pakistan becoming a civilian autocracy. All eyes are on you, Prime Minister!
The remaining half of the battle can be won if you view your high office as a means to a very important goal, i.e. cooling the combustible political temperature, reducing society’s bitter divisions, focusing on issues rather than on polemics and demagoguery and, above all, giving hope of a better tomorrow.
In other words, Prime Minister, you and your rainbow coalition need to politically defeat the destructive rank populism of Imran Khan which has rent asunder state and society.
I know you are one of Pakistan’s most experienced politicians – active in parliamentary politics since 1988 – and widely considered the country’s most effective administrator after the Nawab of Kalabagh, who firmly governed the then West Pakistan in the 1960s.
Still, I am going to be presumptuous and to give you my two cents worth of political advice. So here goes:
Deal effectively and swiftly with “Lettergate”
In your debut address, you boldly staked your reputation on the hollowness of the claim that the USA sought regime change in Pakistan by conspiring with the opposition parties. Your stand has been critically endorsed by the DG ISPR’s crystal clear clarification that the word “conspiracy” never figured in the minutes of the National Security Council’s meeting on Lettergate.
You need to comprehensively bury this myth by holding a high-level enquiry, headed by an uncontroversial and apolitical retired Supreme Court judge, with well-respected retired officers of the police, the foreign service and the armed forces as its members. Set a two-month period for the completion of the enquiry and issuance of its report, since time is of the essence.
Please remember the Tashkent Declaration of 1966 and the grave charge levelled by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto that Ayub Khan had agreed to a secret provision in this pact with India. Bhutto never revealed that hidden provision - many believe it did not even exist - but the damaging allegation proved a festering sore which further weakened Ayub’s declining credibility.
Therefore, lance the Lettergate boil before it becomes any bigger!
Do not indulge in name-calling, abuse and rabble-rousing
Imran Khan has stooped low to make you the butt of crude jokes, to distort your name and to indulge in your character assassination.
Deal with this unbecoming conduct by ignoring it altogether. Let Imran Khan appear as the sole leader indulging in such meaningless verbal abuse. Show yourself to be above it all. If you do so, you will appear statesmanlike and your opponent will appear a rabble-rouser.
Debate Imran Khan on performance; avoid polemics
You should surgically focus on a critique of Imran’s time in office, with well-documented facts and figures to puncture his lofty claims of having run a successful government. Concrete achievements of the PTI government were few and far between, and this is the Achilles' heel on which your government should hammer home the attack against the PTI.
Do not waste time in controversial debates and disputes. Imran revels in playing on this turf, since it allows him to sidestep his weak wicket of policy and performance. You cannot match Imran on this front, because he is a past master at this art. Therefore, simply do not go down this ruinous path.
Construct a broad-based electoral constituency
Prime Minister, the core of the PTI’s support base is the urban middle class, the youth, women and serving and retired civil/military officials and their families. Do not write them off as a lost cause; rather, try to address the issues and challenges they face in their daily lives. This does not mean that they will en masse desert the PTI’s ranks, but at least you would have begun the difficult but necessary process of chipping away at the party’s core constituency.
In addition, you need to expand your own vote-bank, which currently comprises traders, small businesses, the rural middle class and conservative elements. Focus on a mass group, such as farmers, and use a combination of targeted benefits to create a favourable electoral constituency among this segment of society. Farmers may not be as vocal and savvy as the urban middle class, but they are the salt of the earth and, as Narendra Modi learnt to his extreme discomfort when he unsuccessfully took on the Indian farmers over his controversial farm laws, they are a force to be reckoned with!
Harness a broad electoral vote-bank as a force for positive change.
Create positivity
The nation is yearning for some substantial news of good cheer, which can lift its morale and hold forth the promise of a better tomorrow.
In my view, the carving out of two new provinces from the Punjab - South Punjab and Bahawalpur - is one such momentous initiative to be considered. It will bring manifold benefits: a much-needed devolution of power; the distant “Takht-e-Lahore” will no longer call the shots for these areas; no negative precedent will be created on linguistic grounds, since the two provinces will be created on an administrative basis; and, last but not least, the decision will give your government goodwill and additional electoral support.
A fly in the ointment exists: in the absence of 120 plus PTI MNAs, it may not be possible to amend the constitution to create new provinces, since two-thirds of the total membership of the Senate and the National Assembly is required for this purpose. However, if bye-elections are held, the government should seize the initiative by making the creation of the two provinces a major election issue in Punjab. This will not only blunt the PTI’s likely focus on Lettergate, but it will also allow you to craft your election strategy around an issue of great pith and importance.
Last but not least, hold your ground!
The PTI chairman is marching up and down the length and breadth of Pakistan, demanding early elections and exacerbating divisions in society. Impressive crowds are attending his rallies.
Let him sweat it out! As the torrid summer approaches, the rising mercury will most likely cool the ardour of his followers.
It is critically important that you hold your rainbow coalition in place. The parties in your unity government represent the votes of nearly 70% of Pakistanis; the PTI represents the remaining 30% of the country. Do not lose sight of this hard fact.
So far the crowds at the PTI rallies are primarily drawn from the party’s existing voter base. The “dharna” could not bring down the Nawaz Sharif government in 2014; it will be a tall order for these rallies to pressurize a broad-based opposition unity government into calling early elections. At least not as long as the powers-that-be remain neutral, steadfast and committed to support your lawfully constituted government.
Therefore, keep your nerves steady!
Prime Minister, Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020 proves that populism is not invincible. It can be vanquished if a strong counter narrative is built against its divisive appeal. The PTI’s brand of populism can also be defeated, but for this you need to step up and fight the good fight.
Do not get distracted from focusing on this vital task. Let the provincial governments deal with operational matters, such as metro bus functioning, construction of motorways and building of schools, hospitals and clean water schemes, etc. Not just in letter but in spirit also you must now graduate from being the Khadim-e-Aala of Punjab to becoming the Khadim-e-Azam of Pakistan.
If you succeed, the odds will favour Pakistan remaining a liberal and constitutional democracy; but if you fail and we see the return of the populist, the odds will shorten on Pakistan becoming a civilian autocracy. All eyes are on you, Prime Minister!