The Gaza war is now escalating to another flash point. Iran and Israel are now facing each other directly and more destructively. The strategic environment in the Middle East has further descended into perpetual chaos. There is madness that doesn't require any method; it is full-blown and mutually destructive. Iran's direct response to Israel's offensive in Damascus, which caused casualties and destroyed the Iranian consulate, was expected. This Pandora's box, however, has now flung wide open and has brought with it the talk of an axis of resistance to the war of attrition, something that both ideologically driven states would have rather avoided. If Israeli action appears more strategic than frustration, then the Iranian response is far from being a surprise.
Israel's Damascus strategy could potentially draw the spotlight away from its war crimes in Gaza and enjoy further unconditional support from the United States. On the contrary, the Iranian response will further cement its prestige in the larger region and an unfettered legitimacy to lead the war against the Zionist regime and the US. The period for rhetoric, however, is now over, and it appears that the Iranians will not hesitate in crossing the Rubicon. So far, the Iranians have been achieving their larger objectives through proxies such as the Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. But now, Iranian deterrence is more offensive than covert operations through proxies.
Their rivalry shows who holds the best deterrence. So far, the Iranians have avoided a war of attrition, but it appears now that the Khamenei regime in Iran is worrying about both its regional and domestic appearance. The message to Israel, the US and even the Iranian people with these strikes is simple: they have the capability to destroy Israel from much further than what their calculations have suggested in the past. If Iran can use ballistic and cruise missiles from its shores to strike at targets inside Israel, then it is a message to both Tel-Aviv and Washington that Tehran has both the capacity and capability to deliver nuclear warheads inside Israel in the future. It is most unlikely that Iran would go that far, despite the fact its current rhetoric has matched its actions, as that could potentially be suicidal for Khamenei and Iran.
From the Israeli perspective, its actions were not in haste; rather, they were well-crafted and strategic. The potential objective of bringing this war of attrition to Iran is multi-fold. The first could be a needed diversion from ongoing genocide in Gaza without succumbing to any pressure for agreeing to a possible ceasefire without achieving its objectives (return of hostages and restablishing complete control over Gaza). The second is that a war with Iran or any potentially continuing conflict away from Gaza could help provide Netanyahu's personified political legitimacy an elixir against any trouble in the midst of a politically destabilised Israel. Thirdly, it would keep the unconditional support from the US flowing to safeguard Israel's interests, providing her strategic impunity from Security Council resolutions, impact of International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings and sustained military support for its survival. Besides, it would help revive sympathy for it in its core support base in the US.
For Iran, it is an opportunity to redefine its image of leading the Islamic resistance against Israel and the US, an opportunity to show Iranians, Arabs, and the Muslim world at large that it has the capacity, capability and will to fight for the Palestinian cause, solidifying its revolutionary and ideological apparatuses within and outside Iran while showcasing its potential to meet the rhetoric and not just hide behind proxies. The problem, however, would be at what cost is it willing to do this? This is like opening a new era of madness that would hurt everyone and cause further humanitarian crises. So far, the Iranian regime has been avoiding the war of attrition, but it seems the chaos runs much deeper. There won't be any grand narratives if the US decides to enter the fray. The Iranians have backing from Russia, which has been desperately trying to shift the world's attention from Ukraine to the Middle East.
If Iran and Israel further escalate this conflict, don't expect there to be any logical winner. If Israel goes into Iran to destabilise its nuclear infrastructure under the Biden administration's Iron Clad, Iran won't back down either
First, the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, then challenging the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and now pushing the Americans to taste its own medicine of exhausting its powers with high-intensity and high-cost conflicts. The Churchilian dictum, "The war will be ended by the exhaustion of nations rather than the victories of armies," just might become a possibility, depending on how the US balances the potential outcomes of the current Iran-Israel conflict. The cost of this brewing conflict would be a defining moment for both Iran and Israel. Their stakes are now inviting a methodological madness, the unimagined duration of this crisis and the potential harm it would inflict upon them and the larger Middle East.
The Arab Gulf monarchies, in particular, must be watching this present horror with nervousness. The impact of the strikes is already showing its bloody face, and the crisis could further add to their security dilemma. The Arabs would only allow the Iranian belligerence to expand at their own peril. There is a tall shadow of uncertainty looming over the cherished Abraham Accords, but the security dilemma for the Arab states now runs much deeper than any need to normalise relations with Israel. For the Saudis, the Iranian threat was always imminent, and this present crisis would also shape their national security.
Non-Arabs (Iran, Israel and Turkiye) are the real hegemon in the Middle East. Turkiye can't remain untouched from this madness either. Ankara is a NATO ally, but it is equally closer to Russia, and the Erdogan regime has clandestinely maintained trade relations with Israel. Erdogan and Turkiye had to offer something serious if the ongoing conflict potentially affected its national security. Erdogan has his ambitions, and, in the backdrop of losing legitimacy at home, he also has some stakes in this madness. However, which way Erdogan moves will be difficult to predict.
Lastly, the role the tiny Gulf nation of Qatar plays is uncertain, too. Doha is a close ally of the US but is equally close to Hamas and Iran. The real challenge would be how far they maintain their strategic balance amidst this chaos and madness. If it further trivialises the conflict, which it potentially might considering the stakes are well defined, the 'base diplomacy' might be a defining feature. Would the Saudis, Qataris and other Gulf monarchies allow its sovereign territory to be used by the US to act against Iranian aggression like it did in the past against Iraq?
Every conflict carries on with its own method, but this madness has no underlying method. If Iran and Israel further escalate this conflict, don't expect there to be any logical winner. If Israel goes into Iran to destabilise its nuclear infrastructure under the Biden administration's Iron Clad, Iran won't back down either. The stakes could be raised even higher with unimaginable ramifications. Iran and Israel would not achieve much military victory; that's the war of attrition, and history has bared us out. The age of medieval warfare strategies is over; the age of artificial intelligence (AI) and drones will now shape how far this madness will go and how ugly its long-term impacts could be. The stakes might be many, but the cost would be definitely catastrophic, and the only winner would be the military-industrial complex, neither Netanyahu in Israel nor Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran.